Bass forecasting

The Bass diffusion model is used to forecast the adoption and sales of a new product or service based on early adoption data or similar products. It can be used to forecast the long-term sales pattern of a product.

Try it!

Test Bass forecasting on a sample data set and see for yourself

Key features

Calibrate on past data

If the product or service has been launched for several periods already, and past adoption data is available, the Bass model can auto-calibrate et identify the parameters that best explain past adoptions, then use these parameters to predict future adoptions.

Database of 120 products

Enginius embeds a database of parameters for the Bass model estimated for over 120 historical products and services. If you do not have enough data to calibrate a Bass model, you can use that database to make market forecasts by analogy.

Advanced Bass model

The advanced Bass model lets you modify the speed of adoption by measuring the impact of variations in price or advertising over time. Market adoption is usually accelerated as price decreases and advertising becomes more prevalent, and the advanced Bass model (available when you click on the advanced option) takes those effects into accounts for more accurate predictions.

Case studies

Ford hybrid cars

Set in the early years of the hybrid car introduction to the mass market, Ford must develop a sales forecast for its new line of hybrids to determine factory resources. Using the Bass forecasting model, Ford must determine how hybrid market share